Colorado Avalanche at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-01-28 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 5 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 46.1%

COL: 53.9%

Expected Goals

NYI: 2.92

COL: 2.81

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 51%

Over 6.5: 37%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	32	30	2	93.8%	3.67	1	1.67
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	28	23	5	82.1%	3.30	3	-1.70

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • NYI at home vs COL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-04	NYI 6 - 3 COL	NYI	COL
2025-11-16	COL 4 - 1 NYI	COL	COL
2025-01-28	NYI 5 - 2 COL	NYI	COL
2024-10-14	COL 2 - 6 NYI	NYI	COL
2024-01-02	COL 5 - 4 NYI	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	16	1	1.04
1	COL	22	1	1.49
2	NYI	11	1	0.71
2	COL	22	0	1.38
3	NYI	13	1	1.56
3	COL	11	0	0.79

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 5 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.9 - 2.8