Washington Capitals at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-01-28 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 1 - 3 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 57.5%

WSH: 42.5%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.12

WSH: 2.58

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 51%

Over 6.5: 37%

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	23	20	3	87.0%	3.37	2	0.37
WSH	Logan Thompson	33	32	1	97.0%	2.50	0	1.50

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CGY at home vs WSH: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-09	WSH 7 - 3 CGY	WSH	WSH
2026-01-23	CGY 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-02-25	WSH 1 - 3 CGY	CGY	WSH
2025-01-28	CGY 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	CGY
2024-03-18	CGY 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	17	0	0.88
1	WSH	8	0	0.45
2	CGY	16	0	0.66
2	WSH	17	0	1.21
3	CGY	14	0	0.96
3	WSH	12	2	1.70

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 1 - 3 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.1 - 2.6