Washington Capitals at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions
2025-01-28 • Scotiabank Saddledome
Calgary Flames 1 - 3 Washington Capitals
🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
CGY: 59.5%
WSH: 40.5%
Expected Goals
CGY: 2.97
WSH: 2.67
Total Goals
Median: 4.1
Over 5.5: 33%
Over 6.5: 22%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 23-29-3 | 0.899 SV% | 3.01 GAA
WSH
Logan Thompson - 31-21-6 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA
| Stat | CGY | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.901 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.904 | 0.912 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.923 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.39 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CGY at home vs WSH: 0-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | WSH 7 - 3 CGY | WSH | WSH |
| 2026-01-23 | CGY 1 - 3 WSH | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-02-25 | WSH 1 - 3 CGY | CGY | WSH |
| 2025-01-28 | CGY 1 - 3 WSH | WSH | CGY |
| 2024-03-18 | CGY 2 - 5 WSH | WSH | WSH |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:51 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 12:17 | CGY | Goal |
| 2 | 15:12 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 17:35 | WSH | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 59.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 4.0
Expected: 5.6
Score Breakdown
Calgary Flames 1 - 3 Washington Capitals
Expected: 3.0 - 2.7
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