Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-01-28 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 4 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 53.0%

DAL: 47.0%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.30

DAL: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	28	24	4	85.7%	3.63	4	-0.37
DAL	Jake Oettinger	28	25	3	89.3%	2.16	1	-0.84

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • VGK at home vs DAL: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	DAL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-10	DAL 2 - 1 VGK	DAL	DAL
2026-01-29	VGK 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-28	VGK 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-24	DAL 4 - 3 VGK	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	15	1	1.04
1	DAL	11	1	0.96
2	VGK	13	0	0.59
2	DAL	19	1	1.23
3	VGK	12	0	0.39
3	DAL	14	1	1.20
4	VGK	1	0	0.15
4	DAL	1	1	0.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 4 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0