Minnesota Wild at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-01-29 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 3 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 58.5%

MIN: 41.5%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.47

MIN: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Joseph Woll	25	22	3	88.0%	3.10	2	0.10
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	33	32	1	97.0%	2.39	1	1.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TOR at home vs MIN: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-15	MIN 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	MIN
2026-01-19	TOR 3 - 6 MIN	MIN	TOR
2025-01-29	TOR 1 - 3 MIN	MIN	TOR
2024-11-03	MIN 2 - 1 TOR	MIN	MIN
2023-11-19	MIN 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	12	0	0.57
1	MIN	11	0	0.79
2	TOR	19	1	1.03
2	MIN	16	0	0.63
3	TOR	16	0	0.79
3	MIN	10	2	1.69

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 3 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0