Philadelphia Flyers at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2025-01-29 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 5 - 0 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

NJD: 62.2%

PHI: 37.8%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.55

PHI: 2.25

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 51%

Over 6.5: 38%

NJD

Jake Allen - 11-8-1 | 0.912 SV% | 2.52 GAA

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Jake Allen	24	24	0	100.0%	2.64	1	2.64
PHI	Samuel Ersson	26	21	5	80.8%	2.77	2	-2.23

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • NJD at home vs PHI: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	NJD 1 - 5 PHI	PHI	NJD
2025-11-29	NJD 3 - 5 PHI	PHI	NJD
2025-11-22	PHI 6 - 3 NJD	PHI	PHI
2025-03-09	PHI 1 - 3 NJD	NJD	PHI
2025-01-29	NJD 5 - 0 PHI	NJD	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	13	0	0.47
1	PHI	13	1	0.94
2	NJD	18	2	1.87
2	PHI	14	0	0.84
3	NJD	7	0	0.44
3	PHI	12	0	0.85

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 5 - 0 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.5 - 2.3