Pittsburgh Penguins at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2025-01-29 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 2 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

UTA: 58.4%

PIT: 41.6%

Expected Goals

UTA: 3.32

PIT: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

UTA

Connor Ingram - 9-8-4 | 0.882 SV% | 3.27 GAA

PIT

Alex Nedeljkovic - 14-15-5 | 0.894 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Connor Ingram	29	26	3	89.7%	2.70	1	-0.30
PIT	Alex Nedeljkovic	29	27	2	93.1%	3.01	1	1.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • UTA at home vs PIT: 0-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	UTA 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	UTA
2025-12-14	PIT 4 - 5 UTA	UTA	UTA
2025-01-29	UTA 2 - 3 PIT	PIT	UTA
2024-11-23	PIT 1 - 6 UTA	UTA	UTA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	16	0	1.02
1	PIT	8	0	0.48
2	UTA	11	1	1.04
2	PIT	23	0	1.21
3	UTA	16	0	0.85
3	PIT	14	1	0.72
4	UTA	1	0	0.09
4	PIT	3	0	0.29

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Utah Hockey Club 2 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9