Minnesota Wild at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-01-30 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 0 - 4 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 59.4%

MIN: 40.6%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.30

MIN: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

MIN

Marc-Andre Fleury - 14-9-1 | 0.899 SV% | 2.93 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jakub Dobes	27	23	4	85.2%	4.51	5	0.51
MIN	Marc-Andre Fleury	19	19	0	100.0%	2.96	4	2.96

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • MTL at home vs MIN: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-02	MIN 4 - 3 MTL	MIN	MIN
2026-01-20	MTL 4 - 3 MIN	MTL	MTL
2025-01-30	MTL 0 - 4 MIN	MIN	MTL
2024-11-14	MIN 3 - 0 MTL	MIN	MIN
2023-12-21	MIN 4 - 3 MTL	MIN	MIN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	7	0	0.26
1	MIN	13	0	0.47
2	MTL	12	0	0.85
2	MIN	17	1	1.25
3	MTL	20	4	1.86
3	MIN	15	4	2.79

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 0 - 4 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9