Washington Capitals at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-01-30 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 5 - 4 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

OTT: 56.2%

WSH: 43.8%

Expected Goals

OTT: 4.84

WSH: 3.48

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 46%

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Anton Forsberg	35	31	4	88.6%	2.92	2	-1.08
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	34	29	5	85.3%	3.07	2	-1.93

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • OTT at home vs WSH: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-18	WSH 4 - 1 OTT	WSH	OTT
2026-01-01	OTT 4 - 3 WSH	OTT	OTT
2025-10-25	WSH 1 - 7 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-03-03	WSH 5 - 4 OTT	WSH	WSH
2025-01-30	OTT 5 - 4 WSH	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	11	0	0.56
1	WSH	11	0	0.55
2	OTT	19	2	1.40
2	WSH	16	1	1.19
3	OTT	10	0	0.83
3	WSH	15	1	1.12
4	OTT	2	0	0.28
4	WSH	2	0	0.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 8.3

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 5 - 4 Washington Capitals

Expected: 4.8 - 3.5