Los Angeles Kings at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-01-30 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 0 Los Angeles Kings

Win Probability

TBL: 64.5%

LAK: 35.5%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.30

LAK: 2.55

Total Goals

Median: 5.4

Over 5.5: 49%

Over 6.5: 36%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

LAK

David Rittich - 16-14-2 | 0.886 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	28	28	0	100.0%	1.85	0	1.85
LAK	David Rittich	33	30	3	90.9%	4.72	4	1.72

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TBL at home vs LAK: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-01	LAK 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	LAK
2025-12-18	TBL 1 - 2 LAK	LAK	TBL
2025-01-30	TBL 3 - 0 LAK	TBL	TBL
2025-01-04	LAK 2 - 1 TBL	LAK	LAK
2024-03-23	LAK 4 - 3 TBL	LAK	LAK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	12	1	1.14
1	LAK	16	0	0.89
2	TBL	19	1	1.32
2	LAK	11	0	0.38
3	TBL	13	2	2.26
3	LAK	16	0	0.58

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 0 Los Angeles Kings

Expected: 3.3 - 2.5