New York Islanders at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-01-30 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 0 - 3 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 56.2%

NYI: 43.8%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.02

NYI: 2.78

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 40%

PHI

Ivan Fedotov - 6-13-4 | 0.880 SV% | 3.15 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Ivan Fedotov	28	25	3	89.3%	2.06	1	-0.94
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	23	23	0	100.0%	2.24	0	2.24

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • PHI at home vs NYI: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-03	NYI 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	NYI
2026-01-26	PHI 0 - 4 NYI	NYI	PHI
2025-11-28	NYI 3 - 4 PHI	PHI	NYI
2025-10-25	PHI 4 - 3 NYI	PHI	PHI
2025-04-12	PHI 4 - 3 NYI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	16	0	1.02
1	NYI	11	0	0.59
2	PHI	14	0	0.83
2	NYI	15	1	0.87
3	PHI	9	0	0.39
3	NYI	12	0	0.60

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 0 - 3 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.0 - 2.8