Columbus Blue Jackets at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-01-30 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 1 - 2 Columbus Blue Jackets

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 56.5%

CBJ: 43.5%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.25

CBJ: 2.72

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

VGK

Ilya Samsonov - 16-9-4 | 0.891 SV% | 2.82 GAA

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Ilya Samsonov	24	22	2	91.7%	2.55	2	0.55
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	26	25	1	96.2%	2.70	2	1.70

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • VGK at home vs CBJ: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-08	VGK 5 - 3 CBJ	VGK	VGK
2025-12-13	CBJ 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-03-13	CBJ 0 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-30	VGK 1 - 2 CBJ	CBJ	VGK
2024-03-23	VGK 4 - 2 CBJ	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	21	2	1.39
1	CBJ	13	1	1.07
2	VGK	11	0	0.68
2	CBJ	10	0	0.37
3	VGK	11	0	0.64
3	CBJ	9	0	0.33
4	VGK	0	0	0.00
4	CBJ	3	1	0.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 1 - 2 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 3.3 - 2.7