Vancouver Canucks at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-01-31 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 5 - 3 Vancouver Canucks

Win Probability

DAL: 76.1%

VAN: 23.9%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.29

VAN: 2.56

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 42%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	29	26	3	89.7%	2.56	3	-0.44
VAN	Thatcher Demko	16	11	5	68.8%	3.88	7	-1.12

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • DAL at home vs VAN: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-02	VAN 1 - 6 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-11-20	VAN 2 - 4 DAL	DAL	VAN
2025-10-16	DAL 3 - 5 VAN	VAN	DAL
2025-04-08	DAL 5 - 6 VAN	VAN	DAL
2025-03-09	VAN 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	13	2	1.18
1	VAN	14	1	0.65
2	DAL	5	1	0.42
2	VAN	14	1	1.28
3	DAL	12	4	2.29
3	VAN	12	1	0.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 76.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 5 - 3 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 3.3 - 2.6