New York Islanders at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-02-01 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 3 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 60.9%

NYI: 39.1%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.22

NYI: 2.70

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	36	33	3	91.7%	2.83	2	-0.17
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	31	29	2	93.5%	3.33	0	1.33

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs NYI: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-13	NYI 3 - 2 TBL	NYI	TBL
2025-12-06	TBL 0 - 2 NYI	NYI	TBL
2025-12-02	NYI 2 - 1 TBL	NYI	NYI
2025-04-01	NYI 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-03-29	TBL 5 - 3 NYI	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	18	0	0.95
1	NYI	15	1	0.94
2	TBL	20	0	1.61
2	NYI	21	1	1.39
3	TBL	12	0	0.77
3	NYI	8	0	0.38
4	TBL	0	0	0.00
4	NYI	1	0	0.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 3 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.2 - 2.7