Philadelphia Flyers at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-02-02 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 0 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

COL: 62.8%

PHI: 37.2%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.43

PHI: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	24	24	0	100.0%	1.70	0	1.70
PHI	Samuel Ersson	32	30	2	93.8%	3.08	2	1.08

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • COL at home vs PHI: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-23	COL 3 - 7 PHI	PHI	COL
2025-12-07	PHI 2 - 3 COL	COL	PHI
2025-02-02	COL 2 - 0 PHI	COL	COL
2024-11-18	PHI 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2024-01-20	PHI 4 - 7 COL	COL	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	10	0	0.40
1	PHI	12	0	0.44
2	COL	23	2	2.05
2	PHI	12	0	0.44
3	COL	10	0	0.63
3	PHI	10	0	0.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 0 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9