New York Islanders at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-02-02 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 6 - 3 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

FLA: 47.2%

NYI: 52.8%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.67

NYI: 2.60

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

FLA

Spencer Knight - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

NYI

Jakub Skarek - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Spencer Knight	34	31	3	91.2%	3.26	1	0.26
NYI	Jakub Skarek	33	27	6	81.8%	4.43	5	-1.57

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • FLA at home vs NYI: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	NYI 5 - 2 FLA	NYI	NYI
2026-03-01	NYI 5 - 4 FLA	NYI	FLA
2025-12-07	FLA 4 - 1 NYI	FLA	FLA
2025-03-16	NYI 4 - 2 FLA	NYI	NYI
2025-02-02	FLA 6 - 3 NYI	FLA	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	21	0	1.02
1	NYI	11	0	0.46
2	FLA	15	1	1.08
2	NYI	23	1	1.47
3	FLA	11	4	2.34
3	NYI	19	0	1.34

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 6 - 3 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.7 - 2.6