Vegas Golden Knights at New York Rangers NHL Predictions
2025-02-02 • Madison Square Garden
New York Rangers 4 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights
🚨 Upset Win (68% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYR: 31.8%
VGK: 68.2%
Expected Goals
NYR: 2.84
VGK: 3.49
Total Goals
Median: 6.4
Over 5.5: 66%
Over 6.5: 49%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYR
Igor Shesterkin - 25-19-6 | 0.912 SV% | 2.50 GAA
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-10-6 | 0.893 SV% | 2.59 GAA
| Stat | NYR | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.895 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.912 | 0.879 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.885 | 0.895 |
| GAA | 2.51 | 2.50 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • NYR at home vs VGK: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | NYR 2 - 3 VGK | VGK | VGK |
| 2025-11-18 | VGK 3 - 2 NYR | VGK | VGK |
| 2025-02-02 | NYR 4 - 2 VGK | NYR | VGK |
| 2025-01-11 | VGK 1 - 2 NYR | NYR | VGK |
| 2024-01-26 | NYR 2 - 5 VGK | VGK | NYR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19:41 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 01:18 | NYR | Goal |
| 2 | 09:16 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 05:04 | NYR | Goal |
| 3 | 11:33 | NYR | Goal |
| 3 | 18:19 | NYR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 68.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
New York Rangers 4 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights
Expected: 2.8 - 3.5
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