Vegas Golden Knights at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2025-02-02 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 4 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (67% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 32.5%

VGK: 67.5%

Expected Goals

NYR: 2.84

VGK: 3.55

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 49%

NYR

Jonathan Quick - 3-6-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.11 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Jonathan Quick	36	34	2	94.4%	2.81	1	0.81
VGK	Adin Hill	28	24	4	85.7%	2.67	1	-1.33

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • NYR at home vs VGK: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-07	NYR 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-11-18	VGK 3 - 2 NYR	VGK	VGK
2025-02-02	NYR 4 - 2 VGK	NYR	VGK
2025-01-11	VGK 1 - 2 NYR	NYR	VGK
2024-01-26	NYR 2 - 5 VGK	VGK	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	8	0	0.43
1	VGK	24	1	1.24
2	NYR	13	0	0.56
2	VGK	16	0	0.95
3	NYR	17	1	1.68
3	VGK	12	0	0.63

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 67.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 4 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.8 - 3.6