New Jersey Devils at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions
2025-02-04 • PPG Paints Arena
Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 3 New Jersey Devils
🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PIT: 57.2%
NJD: 42.8%
Expected Goals
PIT: 3.14
NJD: 2.92
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 58%
Over 6.5: 42%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 19-12-5 | 0.890 SV% | 2.79 GAA
NJD
Jacob Markstrom - 15-13-1 | 0.882 SV% | 3.20 GAA
| Stat | PIT | NJD |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.888 | 0.884 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.863 | 0.899 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.966 | — |
| GAA | 2.91 | 3.32 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PIT at home vs NJD: 2-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | PIT | ||
| 2026-01-08 | PIT 4 - 1 NJD | PIT | PIT |
| 2025-11-08 | NJD 2 - 1 PIT | NJD | NJD |
| 2025-04-11 | NJD 2 - 4 PIT | PIT | NJD |
| 2025-03-15 | PIT 7 - 3 NJD | PIT | PIT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19:43 | NJD | Goal |
| 2 | 14:56 | NJD | Goal |
| 2 | 09:14 | NJD | Goal |
| 3 | 07:53 | PIT | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | PIT | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | PIT | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | PIT | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | PIT | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | PIT | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 3 New Jersey Devils
Expected: 3.1 - 2.9