New Jersey Devils at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-02-04 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 3 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 50.4%

NJD: 49.6%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.10

NJD: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • PIT at home vs NJD: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	NJD 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	NJD
2026-02-26	PIT 4 - 1 NJD	PIT	PIT
2026-01-08	PIT 4 - 1 NJD	PIT	PIT
2025-11-08	NJD 2 - 1 PIT	NJD	NJD
2025-04-11	NJD 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	20	0	1.05
1	NJD	8	1	0.88
2	PIT	12	0	0.43
2	NJD	16	1	1.37
3	PIT	12	0	0.55
3	NJD	7	0	0.42
4	PIT	3	0	0.25
4	NJD	3	0	0.23
5	PIT	7	2	1.96
5	NJD	7	3	2.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 3 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1