New Jersey Devils at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-02-04 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 3 New Jersey Devils

Win Probability

PIT: 49.7%

NJD: 50.3%

Expected Goals

PIT: 2.59

NJD: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 45%

PIT

Alex Nedeljkovic - 14-15-5 | 0.894 SV% | 3.12 GAA

NJD

Nico Daws - 3-1-0 | 0.939 SV% | 1.60 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Alex Nedeljkovic	28	23	5	82.1%	5.66	5	0.66
NJD	Nico Daws	34	30	4	88.2%	4.23	2	0.23

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 82% • PIT at home vs NJD: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	NJD 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-02-26	PIT 4 - 1 NJD	PIT	PIT
2026-01-08	PIT 4 - 1 NJD	PIT	PIT
2025-11-08	NJD 2 - 1 PIT	NJD	NJD
2025-04-11	NJD 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	20	0	1.05
1	NJD	8	1	0.88
2	PIT	12	0	0.43
2	NJD	16	1	1.37
3	PIT	12	0	0.55
3	NJD	7	0	0.42
4	PIT	3	0	0.25
4	NJD	3	0	0.23
5	PIT	7	2	1.96
5	NJD	7	3	2.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 3 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 2.6 - 3.0