Vegas Golden Knights at New York Islanders NHL Predictions
2025-02-04 • UBS Arena
New York Islanders 2 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights
🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYI: 43.2%
VGK: 56.8%
Expected Goals
NYI: 2.25
VGK: 2.28
Total Goals
Median: 3.3
Over 5.5: 20%
Over 6.5: 11%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 29-24-2 | 0.906 SV% | 2.68 GAA
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-10-6 | 0.893 SV% | 2.59 GAA
| Stat | NYI | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.895 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.851 | 0.879 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.894 | 0.833 |
| GAA | 2.55 | 2.50 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYI at home vs VGK: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-09 | NYI 5 - 4 VGK | NYI | NYI |
| 2025-11-13 | VGK 3 - 4 NYI | NYI | VGK |
| 2025-02-04 | NYI 2 - 1 VGK | NYI | VGK |
| 2025-01-09 | VGK 0 - 4 NYI | NYI | NYI |
| 2024-01-23 | NYI 2 - 3 VGK | VGK | VGK |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18:21 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 07:40 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 10:43 | NYI | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 56.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 3.0
Expected: 4.5
Score Breakdown
New York Islanders 2 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights
Expected: 2.2 - 2.3
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