Toronto Maple Leafs at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-02-04 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 55.6%

TOR: 44.4%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.01

TOR: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 41%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • CGY at home vs TOR: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-02	CGY 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	CGY
2025-10-28	TOR 4 - 3 CGY	TOR	CGY
2025-03-17	TOR 6 - 2 CGY	TOR	TOR
2025-02-04	CGY 3 - 6 TOR	TOR	CGY
2024-01-18	CGY 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	17	0	1.26
1	TOR	15	1	1.17
2	CGY	9	0	0.52
2	TOR	17	0	1.46
3	CGY	12	1	0.84
3	TOR	12	4	3.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 3 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.0 - 3.0