Philadelphia Flyers at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2025-02-04 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 3 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

UTA: 53.9%

PHI: 46.1%

Expected Goals

UTA: 3.20

PHI: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	20	18	2	90.0%	1.89	1	-0.11
PHI	Samuel Ersson	42	39	3	92.9%	4.39	1	1.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • UTA at home vs PHI: 2-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	PHI 0 - 3 UTA	UTA	PHI
2026-01-21	UTA 5 - 4 PHI	UTA	UTA
2025-02-04	UTA 3 - 2 PHI	UTA	UTA
2024-12-08	PHI 2 - 4 UTA	UTA	UTA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	21	0	0.89
1	PHI	15	1	0.90
2	UTA	24	1	1.67
2	PHI	7	0	0.65
3	UTA	19	0	1.20
3	PHI	9	0	0.26
4	UTA	6	0	0.63
4	PHI	2	0	0.08

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Utah Hockey Club 3 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0