Montreal Canadiens at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions
2025-02-04 • SAP Center at San Jose
San Jose Sharks 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens
🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
SJS: 57.9%
MTL: 42.1%
Expected Goals
SJS: 2.75
MTL: 3.14
Total Goals
Median: 5.8
Over 5.5: 54%
Over 6.5: 38%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
SJS
Yaroslav Askarov - 17-15-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.53 GAA
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 18-5-4 | 0.892 SV% | 2.96 GAA
| Stat | SJS | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.896 | 0.889 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.874 | 0.903 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 3.36 | 3.01 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 25% • SJS at home vs MTL: 0-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-27 | MTL 4 - 3 SJS | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-02-04 | SJS 3 - 4 MTL | MTL | SJS |
| 2024-01-11 | MTL 2 - 3 SJS | SJS | MTL |
| 2023-11-24 | SJS 2 - 3 MTL | MTL | SJS |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 05:52 | SJS | Goal |
| 2 | 14:51 | SJS | Goal |
| 2 | 04:53 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 00:52 | SJS | Goal |
| 3 | 15:56 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 10:27 | SJS | Goal |
| 3 | 02:40 | MTL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 5.9
Score Breakdown
San Jose Sharks 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens
Expected: 2.7 - 3.1