Montreal Canadiens at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2025-02-04 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

SJS: 45.8%

MTL: 54.2%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.21

MTL: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • SJS at home vs MTL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	MTL 2 - 4 SJS	SJS	MTL
2026-03-03	SJS 7 - 5 MTL	SJS	MTL
2025-02-27	MTL 4 - 3 SJS	MTL	MTL
2025-02-04	SJS 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	MTL
2024-01-11	MTL 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	15	1	1.08
1	MTL	15	1	1.10
2	SJS	15	1	1.12
2	MTL	14	0	0.75
3	SJS	17	0	1.10
3	MTL	11	2	1.69

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0