Washington Capitals at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-02-06 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 4 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 62.1%

WSH: 37.9%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.02

WSH: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • PHI at home vs WSH: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	WSH 6 - 4 PHI	WSH	WSH
2026-03-11	PHI 4 - 1 WSH	PHI	PHI
2026-02-25	WSH 3 - 1 PHI	WSH	PHI
2026-02-03	PHI 4 - 2 WSH	PHI	PHI
2025-03-20	WSH 3 - 2 PHI	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	12	1	1.08
1	WSH	10	0	0.85
2	PHI	12	0	0.75
2	WSH	7	0	0.40
3	PHI	14	1	1.70
3	WSH	9	1	0.55

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 4 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.0 - 3.0