Colorado Avalanche at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-02-06 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 2 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

Win Probability

CGY: 48.2%

COL: 51.8%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.22

COL: 3.27

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 42%

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	34	30	4	88.2%	4.31	3	0.31
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	29	27	2	93.1%	2.28	1	0.28

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 89% • CGY at home vs COL: 0-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	CGY 1 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-04-09	COL 3 - 1 CGY	COL	COL
2026-03-30	COL 9 - 2 CGY	COL	COL
2025-03-31	COL 2 - 3 CGY	CGY	COL
2025-03-14	CGY 2 - 4 COL	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	14	1	1.25
1	COL	13	0	0.85
2	CGY	8	0	0.46
2	COL	24	1	2.08
3	CGY	16	0	0.57
3	COL	12	2	1.38

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 2 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.2 - 3.3