Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2025-02-07 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 2 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 53.2%

PIT: 46.8%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.00

PIT: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 51%

Over 6.5: 39%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

PIT

Alex Nedeljkovic - 14-15-5 | 0.894 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	26	23	3	88.5%	2.42	1	-0.58
PIT	Alex Nedeljkovic	24	22	2	91.7%	1.81	0	-0.19

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • NYR at home vs PIT: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	NYR 3 - 2 PIT	NYR	PIT
2026-01-31	PIT 6 - 5 NYR	PIT	PIT
2025-10-11	PIT 1 - 6 NYR	NYR	PIT
2025-10-07	NYR 0 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-02-23	PIT 3 - 5 NYR	NYR	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	8	0	0.34
1	PIT	16	0	0.89
2	NYR	14	0	0.58
2	PIT	21	1	1.47
3	NYR	15	0	0.88
3	PIT	1	0	0.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 2 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.0 - 3.0