Colorado Avalanche at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-02-07 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 5 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 59.8%

COL: 40.2%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.39

COL: 3.26

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	31	26	5	83.9%	4.10	6	-0.90
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	27	23	4	85.2%	3.48	4	-0.52

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • EDM at home vs COL: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	EDM 1 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-10	COL 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	COL
2025-11-08	EDM 1 - 9 COL	COL	COL
2025-02-07	EDM 4 - 5 COL	COL	EDM
2025-01-16	COL 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	16	1	1.14
1	COL	15	2	1.15
2	EDM	11	3	1.68
2	COL	11	1	0.80
3	EDM	12	0	0.65
3	COL	17	3	2.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 5 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.4 - 3.3