Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions
2025-02-08 • Little Caesars Arena
Detroit Red Wings 3 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning
🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
DET: 50.0%
TBL: 50.0%
Expected Goals
DET: 3.23
TBL: 2.88
Total Goals
Median: 6.5
Over 5.5: 65%
Over 6.5: 50%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
DET
John Gibson - 29-22-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
| Stat | DET | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.893 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.862 | 0.919 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.895 | 0.927 |
| GAA | 2.97 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • DET at home vs TBL: 4-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | TBL 4 - 3 DET | TBL | TBL |
| 2026-03-12 | TBL 4 - 1 DET | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-11-28 | DET 3 - 6 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-10-17 | DET 2 - 1 TBL | DET | DET |
| 2025-04-11 | TBL 3 - 4 DET | DET | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:28 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 02:56 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 09:47 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 11:49 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 15:13 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 16:54 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 14:29 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 04:10 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 17:57 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 50.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Detroit Red Wings 3 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 3.2 - 2.9
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