Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-02-08 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

DET: 43.6%

TBL: 56.4%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.07

TBL: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 40%

DET

Alex Lyon - 14-9-1 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Alex Lyon	18	12	6	66.7%	2.74	2	-3.26
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	37	34	3	91.9%	4.21	2	1.21

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • DET at home vs TBL: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	TBL 4 - 3 DET	TBL	TBL
2026-03-12	TBL 4 - 1 DET	TBL	TBL
2025-11-28	DET 3 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-17	DET 2 - 1 TBL	DET	TBL
2025-04-11	TBL 3 - 4 DET	DET	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	14	2	1.49
1	TBL	13	0	0.89
2	DET	22	0	1.86
2	TBL	8	0	0.31
3	DET	14	0	0.86
3	TBL	11	2	1.55

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3