Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions
2025-02-08 • Little Caesars Arena
Detroit Red Wings 3 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning
🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
DET: 60.0%
TBL: 40.0%
Expected Goals
DET: 3.35
TBL: 3.45
Total Goals
Median: 6.8
Over 5.5: 65%
Over 6.5: 52%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
DET
John Gibson - 22-12-2 | 0.904 SV% | 2.62 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
| Stat | DET | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.893 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.887 | 0.921 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.897 | 0.926 |
| GAA | 2.97 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • DET at home vs TBL: 4-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-28 | DET 3 - 6 TBL | TBL | DET |
| 2025-10-17 | DET 2 - 1 TBL | DET | DET |
| 2025-04-11 | TBL 3 - 4 DET | DET | TBL |
| 2025-02-08 | DET 3 - 6 TBL | TBL | DET |
| 2025-01-25 | DET 2 - 0 TBL | DET | DET |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:28 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 02:56 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 09:47 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 11:49 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 15:13 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 16:54 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 14:29 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 04:10 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 17:57 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 60.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 6.8
Score Breakdown
Detroit Red Wings 3 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 3.3 - 3.4