Vegas Golden Knights at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2025-02-08 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 3 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Win Probability

BOS: 42.1%

VGK: 57.9%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.09

VGK: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 44%

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

VGK

Ilya Samsonov - 16-9-4 | 0.891 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	38	34	4	89.5%	3.58	2	-0.42
VGK	Ilya Samsonov	24	21	3	87.5%	2.49	1	-0.51

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • BOS at home vs VGK: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-22	BOS 4 - 3 VGK	BOS	VGK
2025-10-16	VGK 6 - 5 BOS	VGK	VGK
2025-03-20	VGK 5 - 1 BOS	VGK	VGK
2025-02-08	BOS 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2024-02-29	BOS 5 - 4 VGK	BOS	BOS

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	20	1	1.45
1	VGK	15	0	0.92
2	BOS	8	0	0.61
2	VGK	23	0	1.30
3	BOS	10	0	0.43
3	VGK	17	2	1.36

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 3 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3