Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-02-08 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

PHI: 76.1%

PIT: 23.9%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.71

PIT: 2.79

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

PIT

J. Blomqvist

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Samuel Ersson	33	31	2	93.9%	5.27	5	3.27
PIT	J. Blomqvist	20	17	3	85.0%	2.17	1	-0.83

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • PHI at home vs PIT: 7-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-09-30	PHI 0 - 7 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-04-29	PHI 1 - 0 PIT	PHI	PIT
2026-04-27	PIT 3 - 2 PHI	PIT	PIT
2026-04-25	PHI 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	PHI
2026-04-22	PHI 5 - 2 PIT	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	4	0	0.24
1	PIT	18	0	1.04
2	PHI	11	0	0.81
2	PIT	13	1	1.03
3	PHI	17	1	1.13
3	PIT	19	4	3.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 76.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.7 - 2.8