Toronto Maple Leafs at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2025-02-08 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 2 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Win (62% underdog)

Win Probability

VAN: 38.3%

TOR: 61.7%

Expected Goals

VAN: 2.85

TOR: 3.32

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 43%

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Thatcher Demko	28	27	1	96.4%	2.36	0	1.36
TOR	Joseph Woll	25	23	2	92.0%	4.36	3	2.36

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VAN at home vs TOR: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-31	VAN 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	TOR
2026-01-10	TOR 5 - 0 VAN	TOR	TOR
2025-02-08	VAN 2 - 1 TOR	VAN	TOR
2025-01-11	TOR 0 - 3 VAN	VAN	TOR
2024-01-20	VAN 6 - 4 TOR	VAN	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	20	0	1.13
1	TOR	10	0	0.54
2	VAN	11	1	0.75
2	TOR	23	0	0.98
3	VAN	21	2	2.48
3	TOR	10	0	0.84

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 2 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.9 - 3.3