Utah Hockey Club at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-02-09 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 4 - 5 Utah Hockey Club

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 58.8%

UTA: 41.2%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.21

UTA: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

UTA

Connor Ingram - 9-8-4 | 0.882 SV% | 3.27 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	28	23	5	82.1%	3.99	2	-1.01
UTA	Connor Ingram	45	41	4	91.1%	4.11	4	0.11

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 0% • WSH at home vs UTA: 0-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	UTA 4 - 7 WSH	WSH	UTA
2026-03-03	WSH 2 - 3 UTA	UTA	WSH
2025-02-09	WSH 4 - 5 UTA	UTA	WSH
2024-11-18	UTA 2 - 6 WSH	WSH	UTA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	18	2	1.68
1	UTA	14	0	0.71
2	WSH	14	0	0.79
2	UTA	18	1	1.40
3	WSH	17	1	1.00
3	UTA	12	0	0.55
4	WSH	3	1	0.40
4	UTA	2	0	0.29
5	WSH	3	0	0.24
5	UTA	2	1	1.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 4 - 5 Utah Hockey Club

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0