Tampa Bay Lightning at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-02-09 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 52.6%

TBL: 47.4%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.96

TBL: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 28% • MTL at home vs TBL: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-03	TBL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-05-01	MTL 0 - 1 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-29	TBL 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-04-26	MTL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-24	MTL 3 - 2 TBL	MTL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	20	1	1.58
1	TBL	6	1	0.63
2	MTL	14	0	0.68
2	TBL	13	3	1.55
3	MTL	23	1	1.73
3	TBL	9	1	0.79

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1