Tampa Bay Lightning at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-02-09 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

MTL: 45.8%

TBL: 54.2%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.89

TBL: 3.32

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jakub Dobes	21	16	5	76.2%	2.96	5	-2.04
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	35	32	3	91.4%	3.99	2	0.99

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • MTL at home vs TBL: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-03	TBL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-05-01	MTL 0 - 1 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-29	TBL 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-04-26	MTL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-24	MTL 3 - 2 TBL	MTL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	20	1	1.58
1	TBL	6	1	0.63
2	MTL	14	0	0.68
2	TBL	13	3	1.55
3	MTL	23	1	1.73
3	TBL	9	1	0.79

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.9 - 3.3