Dallas Stars at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2025-02-22 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 2 - 4 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

Win Probability

NJD: 50.4%

DAL: 49.6%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.19

DAL: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 50%

NJD

Jake Allen - 11-8-1 | 0.912 SV% | 2.52 GAA

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Jake Allen	26	22	4	84.6%	3.06	2	-0.94
DAL	Casey DeSmith	33	31	2	93.9%	3.70	2	1.70

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 20% • NJD at home vs DAL: 0-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	DAL 4 - 6 NJD	NJD	DAL
2025-12-03	NJD 0 - 3 DAL	DAL	NJD
2025-03-04	DAL 4 - 3 NJD	DAL	DAL
2025-02-22	NJD 2 - 4 DAL	DAL	NJD
2024-03-14	DAL 2 - 6 NJD	NJD	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	20	0	0.93
1	DAL	13	1	0.82
2	NJD	18	1	1.39
2	DAL	13	0	0.86
3	NJD	19	1	1.37
3	DAL	11	1	1.38

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 2 - 4 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2