Montreal Canadiens at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions
2025-02-22 • Canadian Tire Centre
Ottawa Senators 2 - 5 Montreal Canadiens
🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
OTT: 56.5%
MTL: 43.5%
Expected Goals
OTT: 3.29
MTL: 2.83
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 54%
Over 6.5: 41%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 28-12-8 | 0.891 SV% | 2.73 GAA
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 29-10-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.78 GAA
| Stat | OTT | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.881 | 0.889 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.921 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.875 | — |
| GAA | 2.95 | 3.01 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • OTT at home vs MTL: 3-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | OTT 2 - 3 MTL | MTL | OTT |
| 2026-01-17 | OTT 5 - 6 MTL | MTL | OTT |
| 2025-12-02 | MTL 2 - 5 OTT | OTT | MTL |
| 2025-11-01 | MTL 4 - 3 OTT | MTL | OTT |
| 2025-04-11 | OTT 5 - 2 MTL | OTT | OTT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 02:28 | MTL | Goal |
| 1 | 04:28 | MTL | Goal |
| 1 | 13:20 | MTL | Goal |
| 1 | 15:54 | OTT | Goal |
| 1 | 16:13 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 05:14 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 11:32 | MTL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 56.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Ottawa Senators 2 - 5 Montreal Canadiens
Expected: 3.3 - 2.8
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