Montreal Canadiens at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-02-22 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 5 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 55.1%

MTL: 44.9%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.22

MTL: 3.37

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • OTT at home vs MTL: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-11	OTT 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	OTT
2026-01-17	OTT 5 - 6 MTL	MTL	OTT
2025-12-02	MTL 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-01	MTL 4 - 3 OTT	MTL	MTL
2025-04-11	OTT 5 - 2 MTL	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	20	0	0.72
1	MTL	14	0	0.71
2	OTT	15	0	0.65
2	MTL	11	1	0.86
3	OTT	16	0	1.16
3	MTL	13	0	0.79

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 2 - 5 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.2 - 3.4