Edmonton Oilers at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-02-23 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 7 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 42.8%

EDM: 57.2%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.04

EDM: 2.86

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 46%

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

EDM

Calvin Pickard - 4-5-2 | 0.874 SV% | 3.69 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	25	22	3	88.0%	2.32	0	-0.68
EDM	Calvin Pickard	35	28	7	80.0%	4.46	4	-2.54

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WSH at home vs EDM: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-24	EDM 6 - 5 WSH	EDM	EDM
2025-11-19	WSH 7 - 4 EDM	WSH	EDM
2025-02-23	WSH 7 - 3 EDM	WSH	EDM
2025-01-21	EDM 2 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-03-13	EDM 7 - 2 WSH	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	21	1	1.52
1	EDM	9	0	0.80
2	WSH	13	0	1.01
2	EDM	14	0	0.84
3	WSH	15	3	1.92
3	EDM	15	0	0.67

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 7 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.0 - 2.9