New York Rangers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-02-23 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 5 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 59.1%

NYR: 40.9%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.33

NYR: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 41%

PIT

J. Blomqvist

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	J. Blomqvist	16	11	5	68.8%	2.28	2	-2.72
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	40	37	3	92.5%	4.25	3	1.25

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • PIT at home vs NYR: 1-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	NYR 3 - 2 PIT	NYR	PIT
2026-01-31	PIT 6 - 5 NYR	PIT	PIT
2025-10-11	PIT 1 - 6 NYR	NYR	PIT
2025-10-07	NYR 0 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-02-23	PIT 3 - 5 NYR	NYR	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	16	1	1.32
1	NYR	10	0	0.60
2	PIT	29	1	1.94
2	NYR	6	0	0.30
3	PIT	15	1	0.99
3	NYR	10	2	1.38

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 5 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9