New York Rangers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions
2025-02-23 • PPG Paints Arena
Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 5 New York Rangers
🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PIT: 58.4%
NYR: 41.6%
Expected Goals
PIT: 2.99
NYR: 3.11
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 55%
Over 6.5: 41%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 19-12-5 | 0.890 SV% | 2.79 GAA
NYR
Igor Shesterkin - 17-12-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.45 GAA
| Stat | PIT | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.888 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.863 | 0.942 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.894 | 0.958 |
| GAA | 2.91 | 2.51 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 20% • PIT at home vs NYR: 1-5
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | PIT 6 - 5 NYR | PIT | PIT |
| 2025-10-11 | PIT 1 - 6 NYR | NYR | PIT |
| 2025-10-07 | NYR 0 - 3 PIT | PIT | NYR |
| 2025-02-23 | PIT 3 - 5 NYR | NYR | PIT |
| 2025-02-07 | NYR 2 - 3 PIT | PIT | NYR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12:53 | PIT | Goal |
| 1 | 19:12 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 17:00 | NYR | Goal |
| 3 | 00:57 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 03:31 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 04:21 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 11:26 | NYR | Goal |
| 3 | 19:53 | NYR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 58.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 5 New York Rangers
Expected: 3.0 - 3.1