Anaheim Ducks at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-02-23 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 5 - 4 Anaheim Ducks

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 46.7%

ANA: 53.3%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.30

ANA: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

DET

Alex Lyon - 14-9-1 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Alex Lyon	28	24	4	85.7%	2.89	2	-1.11
ANA	Lukas Dostal	36	31	5	86.1%	4.79	4	-0.21

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DET at home vs ANA: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-13	DET 6 - 3 ANA	DET	DET
2025-10-31	ANA 5 - 2 DET	ANA	ANA
2025-02-23	DET 5 - 4 ANA	DET	ANA
2024-11-15	ANA 6 - 4 DET	ANA	ANA
2024-01-07	ANA 2 - 3 DET	DET	DET

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	14	0	1.09
1	ANA	18	1	1.26
2	DET	23	1	1.51
2	ANA	12	0	0.89
3	DET	15	3	1.49
3	ANA	10	0	0.47
4	DET	6	0	0.70
4	ANA	2	1	0.27

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 5 - 4 Anaheim Ducks

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9