Seattle Kraken at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2025-02-23 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Seattle Kraken
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 69.1%
SEA: 30.9%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.06
SEA: 2.62
Total Goals
Median: 5.8
Over 5.5: 65%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA
SEA
A. Stezka
| Stat | TBL | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 2.33 | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | Andrei Vasilevskiy | 37 | 36 | 1 | 97.3% | 3.07 | 2 | 2.07 |
| SEA | A. Stezka | 24 | 20 | 4 | 83.3% | 4.12 | 2 | 0.12 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TBL at home vs SEA: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | TBL 3 - 4 SEA | SEA | TBL |
| 2026-03-17 | SEA 2 - 6 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-02-23 | TBL 4 - 1 SEA | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-12-14 | SEA 1 - 5 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2023-12-09 | SEA 3 - 4 TBL | TBL | SEA |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TBL | 15 | 0 | 0.82 |
| 1 | SEA | 14 | 0 | 0.65 |
| 2 | TBL | 16 | 1 | 1.54 |
| 2 | SEA | 23 | 1 | 1.41 |
| 3 | TBL | 12 | 1 | 1.76 |
| 3 | SEA | 12 | 1 | 1.00 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 69.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.7
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Seattle Kraken
Expected: 3.1 - 2.6
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