Seattle Kraken at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-02-23 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Seattle Kraken

Win Probability

TBL: 76.7%

SEA: 23.3%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.80

SEA: 2.86

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TBL at home vs SEA: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	TBL 3 - 4 SEA	SEA	TBL
2026-03-17	SEA 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-02-23	TBL 4 - 1 SEA	TBL	TBL
2024-12-14	SEA 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2023-12-09	SEA 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	15	0	0.82
1	SEA	14	0	0.65
2	TBL	16	1	1.54
2	SEA	23	1	1.41
3	TBL	12	1	1.76
3	SEA	12	1	1.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 76.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Seattle Kraken

Expected: 3.8 - 2.9