Seattle Kraken at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-02-23 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Seattle Kraken

Win Probability

TBL: 78.9%

SEA: 21.1%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.33

SEA: 2.37

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 41%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

SEA

A. Stezka

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	37	36	1	97.3%	3.07	2	2.07
SEA	A. Stezka	24	20	4	83.3%	4.12	2	0.12

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TBL at home vs SEA: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	TBL 3 - 4 SEA	SEA	TBL
2026-03-17	SEA 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-02-23	TBL 4 - 1 SEA	TBL	TBL
2024-12-14	SEA 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2023-12-09	SEA 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	15	0	0.82
1	SEA	14	0	0.65
2	TBL	16	1	1.54
2	SEA	23	1	1.41
3	TBL	12	1	1.76
3	SEA	12	1	1.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 78.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Seattle Kraken

Expected: 3.3 - 2.4