Toronto Maple Leafs at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2025-02-23 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 2 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

CHI: 39.0%

TOR: 61.0%

Expected Goals

CHI: 3.06

TOR: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

CHI

Arvid Soderblom - 4-7-1 | 0.873 SV% | 4.02 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	Arvid Soderblom	30	25	5	83.3%	3.88	3	-1.12
TOR	Joseph Woll	27	25	2	92.6%	1.48	1	-0.52

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CHI at home vs TOR: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-16	TOR 3 - 2 CHI	TOR	TOR
2025-11-15	CHI 3 - 2 TOR	CHI	TOR
2025-02-23	CHI 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-12-02	TOR 4 - 1 CHI	TOR	TOR
2023-11-24	CHI 4 - 3 TOR	CHI	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	12	1	0.59
1	TOR	15	0	0.77
2	CHI	12	0	0.71
2	TOR	24	2	1.71
3	CHI	10	0	0.18
3	TOR	10	1	1.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Chicago Blackhawks 2 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1