Dallas Stars at New York Islanders NHL Predictions
2025-02-23 • UBS Arena
New York Islanders 3 - 4 Dallas Stars
🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYI: 61.5%
DAL: 38.5%
Expected Goals
NYI: 3.17
DAL: 3.20
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 61%
Over 6.5: 44%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 20-13-2 | 0.916 SV% | 2.44 GAA
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 23-10-4 | 0.897 SV% | 2.73 GAA
| Stat | NYI | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.907 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.930 | 0.860 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.864 |
| GAA | 2.55 | 2.57 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • NYI at home vs DAL: 1-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-18 | DAL 2 - 3 NYI | NYI | DAL |
| 2025-02-23 | NYI 3 - 4 DAL | DAL | NYI |
| 2024-10-12 | DAL 3 - 0 NYI | DAL | DAL |
| 2024-02-26 | DAL 2 - 3 NYI | NYI | DAL |
| 2024-01-21 | NYI 3 - 2 DAL | NYI | NYI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 02:10 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 03:44 | NYI | Goal |
| 2 | 08:48 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 08:55 | NYI | Goal |
| 2 | 15:53 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 17:28 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 09:17 | DAL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 61.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.4
Score Breakdown
New York Islanders 3 - 4 Dallas Stars
Expected: 3.2 - 3.2