Dallas Stars at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-02-23 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 3 - 4 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 55.9%

DAL: 44.1%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.20

DAL: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 49%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	29	25	4	86.2%	4.95	4	0.95
DAL	Jake Oettinger	37	34	3	91.9%	3.13	2	0.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • NYI at home vs DAL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	NYI 2 - 1 DAL	NYI	DAL
2025-11-18	DAL 2 - 3 NYI	NYI	NYI
2025-02-23	NYI 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	NYI
2024-10-12	DAL 3 - 0 NYI	DAL	DAL
2024-02-26	DAL 2 - 3 NYI	NYI	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	11	0	0.33
1	DAL	19	1	2.09
2	NYI	25	0	1.18
2	DAL	19	1	1.55
3	NYI	19	2	1.62
3	DAL	14	2	1.32

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 3 - 4 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0