Dallas Stars at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-02-23 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 3 - 4 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 58.5%

DAL: 41.5%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.16

DAL: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • NYI at home vs DAL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	NYI 2 - 1 DAL	NYI	DAL
2025-11-18	DAL 2 - 3 NYI	NYI	NYI
2025-02-23	NYI 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	NYI
2024-10-12	DAL 3 - 0 NYI	DAL	DAL
2024-02-26	DAL 2 - 3 NYI	NYI	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	11	0	0.33
1	DAL	19	1	2.09
2	NYI	25	0	1.18
2	DAL	19	1	1.55
3	NYI	19	2	1.62
3	DAL	14	2	1.32

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 3 - 4 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0