San Jose Sharks at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-02-23 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 2 San Jose Sharks

Win Probability

CGY: 60.4%

SJS: 39.6%

Expected Goals

CGY: 4.20

SJS: 2.71

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 51%

Over 6.5: 39%

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

SJS

Alexandar Georgiev - 15-26-4 | 0.875 SV% | 3.71 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	29	27	2	93.1%	2.81	0	0.81
SJS	Alexandar Georgiev	36	33	3	91.7%	2.83	2	-0.17

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • CGY at home vs SJS: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-26	SJS 1 - 4 CGY	CGY	SJS
2026-01-31	CGY 3 - 2 SJS	CGY	CGY
2025-12-16	SJS 6 - 3 CGY	SJS	CGY
2025-11-13	CGY 2 - 0 SJS	CGY	CGY
2025-04-13	CGY 5 - 2 SJS	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	15	0	0.77
1	SJS	14	0	0.73
2	CGY	16	1	1.00
2	SJS	22	0	0.94
3	CGY	16	1	1.06
3	SJS	13	0	1.14

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 3 - 2 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 4.2 - 2.7