Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2025-02-25 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 4 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

BOS: 48.3%

TOR: 51.7%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.11

TOR: 3.29

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • BOS at home vs TOR: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	BOS 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	BOS
2025-11-11	BOS 5 - 3 TOR	BOS	BOS
2025-11-08	TOR 3 - 5 BOS	BOS	TOR
2025-02-25	BOS 4 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2025-01-04	TOR 6 - 4 BOS	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	23	2	1.75
1	TOR	11	0	0.68
2	BOS	20	0	1.52
2	TOR	14	0	0.73
3	BOS	11	0	0.77
3	TOR	21	1	1.80
4	BOS	3	1	0.43
4	TOR	3	1	0.50

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 4 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3