Anaheim Ducks at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-02-25 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Anaheim Ducks

Win Probability

BUF: 69.2%

ANA: 30.8%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.60

ANA: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	18	16	2	88.9%	2.82	3	0.82
ANA	Lukas Dostal	37	34	3	91.9%	5.12	5	2.12

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BUF at home vs ANA: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	ANA 6 - 5 BUF	ANA	ANA
2026-01-10	BUF 5 - 3 ANA	BUF	BUF
2025-02-25	BUF 3 - 2 ANA	BUF	BUF
2024-11-22	ANA 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2024-02-19	BUF 3 - 4 ANA	ANA	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	25	1	1.79
1	ANA	10	2	1.37
2	BUF	9	0	0.44
2	ANA	10	0	0.83
3	BUF	30	4	2.89
3	ANA	11	1	0.61

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 69.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Anaheim Ducks

Expected: 3.6 - 2.9