Edmonton Oilers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2025-02-25 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Edmonton Oilers
🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 43.0%
EDM: 57.0%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.03
EDM: 3.19
Total Goals
Median: 6.4
Over 5.5: 61%
Over 6.5: 48%
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TBL at home vs EDM: 3-0
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | EDM 2 - 5 TBL | TBL | EDM |
| 2025-11-20 | TBL 2 - 1 EDM | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-02-25 | TBL 4 - 1 EDM | TBL | EDM |
| 2024-12-10 | EDM 2 - 1 TBL | EDM | EDM |
| 2023-12-14 | EDM 4 - 7 TBL | TBL | TBL |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TBL | 15 | 0 | 0.82 |
| 1 | EDM | 10 | 0 | 0.69 |
| 2 | TBL | 22 | 0 | 1.34 |
| 2 | EDM | 11 | 0 | 0.63 |
| 3 | TBL | 10 | 0 | 0.59 |
| 3 | EDM | 5 | 0 | 0.48 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Edmonton Oilers
Expected: 3.0 - 3.2
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