Edmonton Oilers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2025-02-25 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Edmonton Oilers
🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 45.8%
EDM: 54.2%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.16
EDM: 2.90
Total Goals
Median: 5.8
Over 5.5: 58%
Over 6.5: 41%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
EDM
Tristan Jarry - 18-9-3 | 0.882 SV% | 3.32 GAA
| Stat | TBL | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.906 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.919 | 0.837 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.942 | 0.925 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.73 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TBL at home vs EDM: 3-0
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | EDM 2 - 5 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-11-20 | TBL 2 - 1 EDM | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-02-25 | TBL 4 - 1 EDM | TBL | EDM |
| 2024-12-10 | EDM 2 - 1 TBL | EDM | EDM |
| 2023-12-14 | EDM 4 - 7 TBL | TBL | EDM |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11:53 | EDM | Goal |
| 1 | 13:11 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 00:29 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 05:38 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 07:23 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 54.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Edmonton Oilers
Expected: 3.2 - 2.9
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