Edmonton Oilers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-02-25 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 43.2%

EDM: 56.8%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.19

EDM: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	24	23	1	95.8%	1.81	0	0.81
EDM	Stuart Skinner	36	32	4	88.9%	2.76	0	-1.24

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • TBL at home vs EDM: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-21	EDM 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	EDM
2025-11-20	TBL 2 - 1 EDM	TBL	TBL
2025-02-25	TBL 4 - 1 EDM	TBL	EDM
2024-12-10	EDM 2 - 1 TBL	EDM	EDM
2023-12-14	EDM 4 - 7 TBL	TBL	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	TBL	15	0.82
1	EDM	10	0.69
2	TBL	22	1.34
2	EDM	11	0.63
3	TBL	10	0.59
3	EDM	5	0.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2