Edmonton Oilers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2025-02-25 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Edmonton Oilers
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 55.7%
EDM: 44.3%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.48
EDM: 2.89
Total Goals
Median: 6.6
Over 5.5: 62%
Over 6.5: 51%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
EDM
Tristan Jarry - 15-7-2 | 0.890 SV% | 3.18 GAA
| Stat | TBL | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.906 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.921 | 0.841 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.960 | 0.925 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.73 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • TBL at home vs EDM: 3-0
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-20 | TBL 2 - 1 EDM | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-02-25 | TBL 4 - 1 EDM | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-12-10 | EDM 2 - 1 TBL | EDM | EDM |
| 2023-12-14 | EDM 4 - 7 TBL | TBL | EDM |
| 2023-11-18 | TBL 6 - 4 EDM | TBL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11:53 | EDM | Goal |
| 1 | 13:11 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 00:29 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 05:38 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 07:23 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 55.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.4
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Edmonton Oilers
Expected: 3.5 - 2.9