Calgary Flames at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions
2025-02-25 • Capital One Arena
Washington Capitals 1 - 3 Calgary Flames
🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WSH: 62.4%
CGY: 37.6%
Expected Goals
WSH: 3.38
CGY: 2.72
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 59%
Over 6.5: 44%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WSH
Logan Thompson - 20-16-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.41 GAA
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 16-21-3 | 0.895 SV% | 3.00 GAA
| Stat | WSH | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.901 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.904 | 0.877 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.962 | — |
| GAA | 2.39 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 20% • WSH at home vs CGY: 1-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | CGY 1 - 3 WSH | WSH | CGY |
| 2025-02-25 | WSH 1 - 3 CGY | CGY | WSH |
| 2025-01-28 | CGY 1 - 3 WSH | WSH | CGY |
| 2024-03-18 | CGY 2 - 5 WSH | WSH | CGY |
| 2023-10-16 | WSH 3 - 2 CGY | WSH | WSH |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11:47 | CGY | Goal |
| 1 | 16:42 | CGY | Goal |
| 3 | 04:52 | CGY | Goal |
| 3 | 15:32 | CGY | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 62.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 4.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Washington Capitals 1 - 3 Calgary Flames
Expected: 3.4 - 2.7