Calgary Flames at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-02-25 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 1 - 3 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 57.5%

CGY: 42.5%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.42

CGY: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 50%

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	25	22	3	88.0%	2.78	4	-0.22
CGY	Dan Vladar	27	26	1	96.3%	2.44	0	1.44

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WSH at home vs CGY: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-09	WSH 7 - 3 CGY	WSH	WSH
2026-01-23	CGY 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-02-25	WSH 1 - 3 CGY	CGY	WSH
2025-01-28	CGY 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	CGY
2024-03-18	CGY 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	11	0	0.39
1	CGY	20	2	1.25
2	WSH	22	0	1.15
2	CGY	5	2	0.68
3	WSH	19	0	0.90
3	CGY	13	0	0.84

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 1 - 3 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1