Dallas Stars at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2025-02-25 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 6 - 4 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

Win Probability

CBJ: 42.3%

DAL: 57.7%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 2.96

DAL: 3.27

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	22	18	4	81.8%	4.28	6	0.28
DAL	Jake Oettinger	29	23	6	79.3%	3.74	3	-2.26

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CBJ at home vs DAL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-22	CBJ 1 - 0 DAL	CBJ	DAL
2025-10-21	DAL 1 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	DAL
2025-02-25	CBJ 6 - 4 DAL	CBJ	DAL
2025-02-02	DAL 5 - 3 CBJ	DAL	DAL
2023-11-09	CBJ 2 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	14	1	1.09
1	DAL	9	2	1.11
2	CBJ	22	0	1.31
2	DAL	14	3	1.56
3	CBJ	6	2	1.34
3	DAL	15	1	1.60

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Columbus Blue Jackets 6 - 4 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.0 - 3.3