New York Islanders at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2025-02-27 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 1 - 2 New York Islanders

Win Probability

BOS: 44.6%

NYI: 55.4%

Expected Goals

BOS: 2.82

NYI: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 41%

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	20	18	2	90.0%	2.03	1	0.03
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	39	38	1	97.4%	4.45	3	3.45

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • BOS at home vs NYI: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-26	NYI 1 - 3 BOS	BOS	NYI
2025-11-04	NYI 3 - 4 BOS	BOS	NYI
2025-10-28	BOS 5 - 2 NYI	BOS	NYI
2025-02-27	BOS 1 - 2 NYI	NYI	NYI
2025-01-05	BOS 4 - 5 NYI	NYI	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	21	2	1.85
1	NYI	10	0	0.41
2	BOS	22	0	1.09
2	NYI	13	1	0.92
3	BOS	22	1	1.51
3	NYI	15	0	0.70

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 1 - 2 New York Islanders

Expected: 2.8 - 3.2