Calgary Flames at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-02-27 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 0 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

TBL: 52.8%

CGY: 47.2%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.19

CGY: 2.38

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 38%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	28	28	0	100.0%	2.31	1	2.31
CGY	Dustin Wolf	22	19	3	86.4%	3.64	2	0.64

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TBL at home vs CGY: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	CGY 4 - 3 TBL	CGY	TBL
2025-11-26	TBL 5 - 1 CGY	TBL	TBL
2025-02-27	TBL 3 - 0 CGY	TBL	TBL
2024-12-12	CGY 3 - 8 TBL	TBL	CGY
2024-03-07	TBL 3 - 6 CGY	CGY	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	11	0	0.70
1	CGY	13	0	0.56
2	TBL	9	0	0.71
2	CGY	18	1	1.21
3	TBL	10	2	2.23
3	CGY	19	0	0.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 0 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.2 - 2.4