Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-02-27 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

PIT: 54.9%

PHI: 45.1%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.31

PHI: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PIT at home vs PHI: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-29	PHI 1 - 0 PIT	PHI	PIT
2026-04-27	PIT 3 - 2 PHI	PIT	PHI
2026-04-25	PHI 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	PHI
2026-04-22	PHI 5 - 2 PIT	PHI	PHI
2026-04-20	PIT 0 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	8	0	0.49
1	PHI	13	1	1.09
2	PIT	24	0	1.01
2	PHI	19	1	1.08
3	PIT	8	0	0.34
3	PHI	19	1	1.50
4	PIT	1	0	0.17
4	PHI	1	0	0.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2