Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-02-27 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

PIT: 51.3%

PHI: 48.7%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.18

PHI: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

PIT

Alex Nedeljkovic - 14-15-5 | 0.894 SV% | 3.12 GAA

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Alex Nedeljkovic	37	33	4	89.2%	3.79	3	-0.21
PHI	Samuel Ersson	25	20	5	80.0%	2.02	0	-2.98

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 72% • PIT at home vs PHI: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-29	PHI 1 - 0 PIT	PHI	PHI
2026-04-27	PIT 3 - 2 PHI	PIT	PIT
2026-04-25	PHI 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-04-22	PHI 5 - 2 PIT	PHI	PIT
2026-04-20	PIT 0 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	8	0	0.49
1	PHI	13	1	1.09
2	PIT	24	0	1.01
2	PHI	19	1	1.08
3	PIT	8	0	0.34
3	PHI	19	1	1.50
4	PIT	1	0	0.17
4	PHI	1	0	0.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0