Buffalo Sabres at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2025-02-27 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 5 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

CAR: 72.9%

BUF: 27.1%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.91

BUF: 2.33

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 45%

CAR

Pyotr Kochetkov - 6-2-0 | 0.899 SV% | 2.33 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Pyotr Kochetkov	15	13	2	86.7%	1.80	1	-0.20
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	37	32	5	86.5%	4.87	3	-0.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • CAR at home vs BUF: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-19	CAR 2 - 1 BUF	CAR	CAR
2025-11-23	BUF 4 - 1 CAR	BUF	CAR
2025-11-08	CAR 6 - 3 BUF	CAR	CAR
2025-04-08	BUF 3 - 0 CAR	BUF	CAR
2025-02-27	CAR 5 - 2 BUF	CAR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	29	2	1.92
1	BUF	8	0	0.30
2	CAR	17	0	1.42
2	BUF	9	1	0.68
3	CAR	13	1	1.52
3	BUF	13	0	0.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 72.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 5 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.9 - 2.3