Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2025-02-28 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 2 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

NYR: 46.3%

TOR: 53.7%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.16

TOR: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	16	13	3	81.2%	3.40	6	0.40
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	35	33	2	94.3%	3.14	1	1.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • NYR at home vs TOR: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-25	TOR 4 - 3 NYR	TOR	NYR
2026-03-05	NYR 6 - 2 TOR	NYR	NYR
2025-10-16	TOR 2 - 1 NYR	TOR	NYR
2025-03-20	NYR 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	NYR
2025-02-28	NYR 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	18	1	1.22
1	TOR	6	1	0.72
2	NYR	16	0	0.70
2	TOR	11	1	0.95
3	NYR	19	0	1.23
3	TOR	10	4	1.74

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 2 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2